Forexpros.com Daily Analysis – 13/10/2009

Traders await publication of US Core Retail Sales

Tomorrow (Wednesday, Oct 14) the US Core Retail Sales monthly report will be published.

The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Analysts forecast a decline from last month's figure of 1.10% to 0.20%.

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Euro Dollar

As expected, the Euro jumped after breaking 1.4725, but the rise stopped just above 1.48, exactly like what happened last Thursday (yesterday's high 1.4812, Thursday's high 1.4816). It seems like reaching the resistance area 1.4808-1.4816 has become a problem for the Euro, since it failed twice at the same area. The falling trendline from yesterdays high, on the intraday charts, will provide the most important resistance for the short-term at 1.4788, and this resistance is the key to break the hard area 1.4808-1.4816, and the well known resistance which is just above it 1.4826, then may be new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. Support is at 1.4728, a break here would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.

Support:
• 1.4728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
• 1.4574: Previous intraday support.

Resistance:
• 1.4788: the falling trendline from yesterday's high on intraday charts.
• 1.4826: previous daily high.
• 1.4901: previous daily high.

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USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen failed to capitalize on the break of 90.29. And although the falling trendline on the 4H was broken, the falling trendline on the hourly chart was not, and price stopped just below it, near the well known resistance 90.40. We will shift attention towards the trendline on the hourly chart, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.29, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. Short-term support is at 89.32, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.

Support:
• 89.21: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
• 89.01: Fibonacci 61.8% , and the most important support for the short-term.
• 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

Resistance:
• 90.37: the falling trendline on the hourly chart, plus the resistance that stopped yesterday's rise.
• 90.67: previous support.
• 91.12: previous support & resistance area.