The trading session closing last week did not clear the situation. Even if there is something on the charts they are not important at the moment at the end of the month. This is more significant than closing of the week moreover that there is something to go from judging about some pairs. For example, the charts of GBP/USD with a retracing “dragon” at the historic low. Further the information about the currencies’ graphs. In my previous review I quoted the email message where the difficult scenarios of the events development were described but I had forgotten to add the remark. Dear traders, if you are sending interesting information to my email address, please, insert the resource. So, having looked through all of these scenarios you could have noticed that almost in each of them it is dwelled on the stock market downfalling, and more often it is said about Dow Jones. I got interested in the situation on stock markets myself as it was a long time I analyzed it. I decided to outlook the graphs quickly without going into details. Visually, the situation is really unfavorable. The graphs hint to the continuation of the falling of numerous incises and stocks. And I noticed a peculiar regularity, such condition is only on the stock charts of the RF and the USA, others demonstrate a rather stable position. It is no use to show all the charts that is why I place only the most vivid below. On every chart I marked the critical levels by the prices, on some of them MA speak for themselves (89 – blue, 200 – black).
FTSE 100.gif)
NASDAQ 100
DJIA
OAO ROSNEFT
OAO SBERBANK
As you can see it the situation on the charts is clearly pointing at further falling. On some graphs such as DJIA and NASDAQ 100, there is a good potential for a retrace of H&S which will definitely grow. As for Dow Jones, working out such a head if it will be plotted, will lead it to the levels around 8400 area and there only god knows what will happen as all of the important levels are all broken. Such events development is similar to the one described in the email which I cited in my previous review.
On the stock market of the Russian Federation some stocks has already started a declining movement, as an example you, see as the stocks of Rosneft and of Gazprom with a similar situation. Double top on the charts of Sberbank is completed but there is still the potential of falling approximately to 57,80, and if this mark is broken, further there is only a critical zone of 52,95. The situation at the moment is not good and now it is only confirming my idea that as a result the markets will get distanced in their directions. Thus, I think that it is useful to observe these charts sometimes as a possible indicator of the changes.
Let us pass to currency market.
In spite of that the last week trading sessions results did not clear the situation midterm selling of the EUR/GBP remain strong, as well as long-term buying of GBP/USD from 1.4000. Moreover, on the pound charts there appeared some levels which can be tried to be worked out in a short-term.
At the moment the pair has formed a local uprising range intraday. The lower border of this channel is supported by 28 in a 4-hour scale and by 89 in one-hour scale. Only a divergence is missing on a daily chart which can be seen on the chart of EUR/USD.
Thus, one can attempt to buy the pound at a current price around 1,4452, with a target in 1,4535 area and a more aggressive aim at 1,4600. The position is aggressive as it is versus the trend and it is obligatory to put the stop-loss. The most wise will be to setup the stop below 200 according to the time scale – 1,4400. And if the hour closes below 200 and below 1,4400 it will be only possible to sell the pair. Approximately from the zones of 1,4380 with a target of 1,4270.
The position is incursive also because for a normal correction on a daily chart there is a lack of a slight divergence of the MACD and decreasing to 1,4270 this divergence oscillator will be seen. Here it will be possible to consider buying with a higher level of the profit. But by far these all are just suppositions as we will need to analyze the scales and the reasons of the decline.
For the moment the stated above recommendations are true and we can try one of the options. Either buy or sell or even both.
As for the euro, the situation here is also very curious. Unlike the pound, intraday there are no good positions, but on a day chart there is a slight divergence of the MACD and a possibility to form a “Double low”. Last week there was an attempt to make it but it was not completed. The current prices are not attractive but if this “Double low” is formed, it will be possible to buy the euro versus the US dollar. The maximal move of this figure will occur in 1,2930 area. Just conservatively take profit from 80% of the movement – 1,2845. for those who are not very familiar with my outlooks, I will explain why this is so. The experience shows that all 100% of the movement the price is working out approximately in 70% of the cases, 70% of the movement – almost all of the times and 80% – in 97% of the situations.
On the chart there is a possible development of the events the level of the figure break and the target.
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