The outlook for the Aussie is started to be quite bearish with the recent rally now considered as a pullback after the initial sharp decline from the beginning of August.
The pair has now confirmed a possible long term reversal with a bounce on top of the key 0,97 level from last week.
At the end of last week, we did see the pair falling sharply after a top at 0,8250. This decline is considered though as a retracement of the previous rally.
The pair continues to trade flat above its historical low (76,00) and does not seem ready to start a meaningful bounce.
The pair has broken down below 1,61 (August low) which confirms the downside pressure.
The pair continues to slide towards the highly watch level at 1,40 which might be offering some support.
Despite the pressure on the majors and relative shift towards risk aversion, the Aussie is being resilient with only a slight consolidation in its current rally.
If a material base might be in place for a possible long term reversal, we haven’t seen yet a real confirmation of the bullish bounce started in July.
In our last analysis, we were expecting an extension of the decline towards 0,78 which has been reached today in a very high pace.
The pair continues to trade flat just above its historical low (76,00). A material might be in place but we now need to see a break above 77,70 (recent high) to confirm a bullish reversal.