The AUD/USD pair rallied a bit during the day on Wednesday, but continues to struggle at the downtrend line that I have marked on the one-hour chart. I believe that this slight pullback could be the beginning of a drift back down to the 0.7630 level again. I think if we can break down below there, the market is likely to go to the 0.76 handle, and then eventually the 0.75 level. Alternately, if we were to break above the top of the range for the session on Wednesday, the market could continue to go higher, perhaps reaching to the 0.7725 level. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to be choppy, but I think that the Australian dollar will continue to struggle against the US dollar, as it has been starting a significant amount of strength to the upside in general. I believe that the market should continue to favor the greenback, especially if there is some type of geopolitical concern out there.
Gold markets have not been helping either, and if they drift lower, that should only be another reason for the Australian dollar to fall. I think that eventually the market should continue to favor the downside, and that eventually we will probably break down, not only to the 0.75 handle, but possibly much lower than that. I think that rallies are more than likely get to continue to invite selling, as the Australian dollar has a significant amount of bearish pressure upon it, not only because of the gold market, but because of the inflationary and interest rate pressures that we are starting to see in the United States. Overall, the market should continue to be very noisy, but I think bearish overall as we are certainly seeing more pressure as of late.
Written by FX Empire