USDJPY is trending lower on its short-term time frames, moving inside a descending channel and currently testing resistance. This lines up with the 100 SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which appears to have held as resistance.
The 100 SMA is also below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside, which means that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. The gap between the moving averages is also widening to reflect stronger bearish pressure.
Stochastic is pointing down to signal that sellers are in control of price action, but that could chance once the oscillator hits oversold levels and turns back up.
The dollar slid lower against most of its peers as bond yields ticked lower on Tuesday. Yellen spoke of how the central bank is “reasonably close” to achieving its goals but that rate hikes should proceed at a gradual pace to avoid having inflation run below target for too long or to push unemployment too low.
Yellen also expressed uncertainty about inflation rebounding, adding that it’s possible for price levels to keep running below target for much longer. This probably cast doubts on rate hikes next year, weighing on the dollar as well.
As for the yen, the Japanese currency appears to be taking its cue from market sentiment and dollar price action. Japan’s all industries activity index turned out weaker than expected with a 0.5% drop versus the estimated 0.4% decline.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way