This currency pair is developing corrective wave B of the medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart). Wave A is 0.9651-1.0182 and its .618 retracement (0.9854) has been reached by the price. More targets below the current level are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0182-0.9974-1.0091, 1.0091-0.9952-1.0002.
Supports:
– 0.9863-54 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 retracement, reached already by the price (!)
– 0.9777 = expanded objective point (XOP)
– 0.9754 = XOP
In case the price reverses up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down starting from 1.0091 – wave not developed yet.
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is dow it is preferable to open shorts on recovery. Since there’s no retracement in sight now it’s better to stand aside until a corrective wave reveals itself.
More analysis at instaforex.com