The previous week was marked by the greenback new 2-months maximum. And the week has already started with sharp drop of the euro. According to the released information, European officials offered Ireland an 85 billion euro bailout. The concerns over the European debt crisis continued to weigh on market sentiment. And the EUR/USD pair dropped to its daily minimums of $1,3062 mark. The geopolitical stress rising from the military problem between the North and the South Korea pressured the market, which influenced the risk sentiment action on Monday.
At the same time the New-Zealand dollar rate grew, as the published on Sunday New-Zealand trade balance showed considerable growth above expectations and the New-Zealand exports increased. Therefore, expectations for the further increase of the principal rate reinforced.
On Tuesday the euro was mainly pressured by the increased concerns that the Ireland crises would spread on the other countries, such as Spain and Portugal. The fact that the EC concluded to offer the credit to Ireland did not support the euro. Concerns for the release of the negative Euro-zone fundamentals reinforced the pressure on the euro. According to the published information, the German unemployment change for November decreased only for 9K against the expected decrease for 20K. In addition to that, the Euro-zone unemployment rate increased to 10.1%, which matched the expectations. Consequently, the euro could not be supported by the released data. The EUR/USD pair traded in the range of $1.3070-$1.3150, and the minimum was hit at the mark of $1.2975.
The yen was consolidating against its major counterparts as a save-haven currency, due to the fact that Chinese government might accept additional measures aimed to weaken the economy. The greenback strengthened.
Expectations for the positive fundamentals’ release resulted in a euro growth on Wednesday. The spreads of the Portuguese, Italian and Spanish bonds reduced, which rendered additional support to the euro. The speculations regarding the possibility that the EC would not allow the European crises to spread at the ECB meeting next day had a positive impact on the euro. According to the experts’ opinion, the euro drop during the previous days has been excessive, and could not be supported by the market. The German retail sales for October increased above expectations, which had a positive impact on the euro. The published on the same day Chinese PMI manufacturing index for November turned out to be at the level of 55.2 against the forecasted level of 54.8, which pushed the stock markets up and pressured the greenback. Later during the day theEUR/USD pair reached maximums at the $1,3182 mark.
On Thursday the euro demonstrated consolidation, as market participants were waiting for the results of the ECB meeting. Confidence, that the ECB members would not allow the European crises to spread on the other countries, reinforced, and willingness to take risks grew. According to the expectations, the principal rate was left at the previous level of 1.00%. The head of the Central Bank, Jean Claude Trichet, mentioned in his statement, that the ECB planned to continue its program of debt instruments’ purchase. Following this release, the euro showed some temporary decrease.
The sterling showed positive dynamics, which was a result of the released UK fundamentals. In particular, the PMI construction index for November turned out to be above expectations: 51.8 against the forecasted level of 51.3. The GBP/USD pair hit maximums at the $1.5665 mark.
The release of the very strong US fundamentals later during the day supported the growing demand for the risky assets, which pressured the greenback more. The pending home sales level for October increased for 10.4% against the expected drop for 1.0%. As a result, the EUR/USD pair reached new maximum of $1,3248.
On Friday the release of the US change in non-farm payrolls created an additional pressure on the greenback and the euro grew even more. According to the published data, the non-farm payrolls increased for only 39K against the expected 150K. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair managed to reach the levels above the $1.3400 mark. The sterling managed to grow above the $1.5750 mark. The USD/JPY pair closed the week below the Y83.00 level.
Forex-Metal Weekly technical analysis for 6 – 10.12
EURUSD
While the pair stays below 1.34278 the pair has a chance to break the figure’s line and Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at 1.30547 and decline to trendline at 1.25667. In case the pair stays above Fibonacci 1.30547 the pair will try to rise to 1.41130.
Resistance: 1.37441, 1.41130, 1.44835
Support: 1.33427, 1.30547, 1.28004
GBPUSD
The pair is trading below Moving Average (100) 1.59962 it may bring pair to Fibonacci retracement 23,6% at 1.52523.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344
USDCHF
MACD supports uptrend corrections. If the pair finds support at 0.96526 the pair will rise to 1.01369.
Resistance: 0.99031, 1.01369, 1.04060
Support: 0.96525, 0.93770, 0.91074
USDJPY
The pair declined below 83.330, it may bring pair to 81.762.
Resistance: 83.330, 86.836, 90.909
Support: 80.244, 76.535, 73.126
AUDUSD
If the pair stays below 1.00031 the pair will decline, aim at 0.96558.
Resistance: 1.00031, 1.01873, 1.03847
Support: 0.97889, 0.94048, 0.89581