Forexpros.com Daily Analysis – 01/10/2009

Euro Dollar

The Euro is testing at this very moment the short-term support 1.4563, after dropping hard in the last half hour. This support is the last barrier before testing Fibonacci 50% which is at 1.4509. Short-term resistance is 1.4622, and breaking it would give another attempt to reach 1.47 (after yesterday's attempt). If 1.4563 is broken, then the falling correction will try to reach Fibonacci 50% support at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430. In this case, this support in particular will become the most important support for the medium term, since breaking it would mean that this drop is more than just a correction, and that the uptrend which started at 1.4176 is already over. On the other hand, if we break 1.4622 we will head first to the resistance area that stopped the price twice yesterday and during the Asian session 1.4668-1.4672. We do not expect a lot of trouble here, on the contrary we would expect to pass it, and reach 1.47 and above, especially the important resistance 1.4720.

Support:
• 1.4563: short-term support.
• 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
• 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842. The most important support for the medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4622: short-term resistance.
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week.
• 1.4776: previous resistance.
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USD/JPY

Yesterday's drop stopped with great accuracy at what we called "the most important support" 89.31 (yesterday's low was 89.34). And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.01, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top, and just below it there is the moving average SMA100. The most important support for today is 89.31 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low. If we break 89.31 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

Support:
• 89.31: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
• 88.56: previous intraday support.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

Resistance:
• 90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
• 90.90-91.01: previous intraday support/resistance, plus the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
• 91.82: previous support/resistance.

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