On Monday the market participants were waiting for the Euro-zone leaders’ summit, planned for the end of the week in Brussels, aimed to discuss the ways out of the crises. The EUR/USD pair reached its 4-months maximum at the level of $1,4240, due to the reinforced expectations for the possible increase of the interest rate at the next ECB meeting. US dollar was supported on the same day, as a save-heaven currency.
Japanese financial markets were closed on Monday due to celebration of the national holiday. Japanese yen continued to stay under pressure, since interventions of G7 countries prevented the yen rate from growing. According to the released information, the situation at the Fukusima NPP was stabilizing. The USD/JPY pair traded at the level of Y81.00. Australian dollar rate grew, due to the increased oil prices. Other commodity currencies, such as New-Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar increased as well.
Euro continued to strengthen on Tuesday, since the expectations for the possible increase of the interest rate by the ECB reinforced. The EUR/USD pair traded at the level of $1.4240. Released on the same day Consumer Price index turned out to be above forecasts: 4.4% against the 4.2%, which rendered considerable support to the pound. Expectations for the interest rate increase by the Bank of England strengthened as well. As a result, the GBP/USD rate reached the $1.6400 maximum.
The New-Zealand dollar rate showed considerable growth against the greenback, since according to the released information, the New-Zealand economy showed rehabilitation, and the interest rates could be increased during the next meeting by the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand.
Instability in Portugal and concerns regarding the possible deepening of the crises pressured the euro on Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair showed minimums at the level of $1.4150 in the threshold of the Portuguese Parliament meeting on the same day. New reductions of the budget would be discussed, and contradictions between the parties could result in a political crises. Announcement regarding the possible suspension of the European Financial Stability Facility extension pressured the euro, which dropped against its counterparts.
Pound started the day at the previously reached maximum levels. Market participants were waiting for the release of the Bank of England meeting report. After the publication of the minutes of the meeting, the sterling dropped against the US dollar. The GBP/USD pair reached minimums at the $1.6265 mark.
Concerns over the escalated European budget crises continued to pressure the euro on Thursday as well. Portuguese Parliament rejected the government plan to reduce the budget deficit. In addition to that, Moody’s credit agency reduced ratings of a number of Spanish banks. Nevertheless, speculations over the possible increase of the Euro-zone interest rate reinforced, and the euro received considerable support. The EUR/USD pair reached the maximum at the $1.4220 level. Later on the Fitch credit agency decreased the rating of Portugal from A++ to A- with the negative forecast.
According to the released fundamentals on Thursday, US Initial jobless claims dropped below forecast, Durable goods orders data showed unexpected decrease.
On Friday the Standard & Poor’s credit agency reduced the credit rating of Portugal from A- to BBB. According to the results of the European summit, the European Financial Stability Fund would be reduced, which rendered additional pressure on the euro. At the sane time, the greenback received substantial support by the announcement of the head of the Philadelphia FRS, Charles Prosser, who stated that the US interest rate should be increased to 2,50% during the current year.
Weekly technical analysis for 28.03-1.04
EURUSD
The pair has reached channel line at 1.42557 and rolled back to 1.40173. The pair may decline to the triangle’s upper border 1.39348.
Resistance: 1.44835, 1.47697, 1.50676
Support: 1.41130, 1.37441, 1.33427
GBPUSD
The pair has declined to triangle’s upper border and Moving Average (100) and testing this level for the support. If the pair breaks 1.59962 the pair will decline to 1.57804.
Resistance: 1.64274, 1.68504, 1.72652
Support: 1.59962, 1.52523, 1.48532
USDCHF
MACD convergence may support the pair to start corrections. Resistance is at 0.93264. Support is at 0.91074.
Resistance: 0.93264, 0.96525, 0.99031
Support: 0.91074, 0.88022, 0.85633
USDJPY
The pair is returning to the triangle’s border and aiming to break it. The pair may rise to 83.330.
Resistance: 83.330, 86.836, 90.909
Support: 80.244, 76.535, 73.126
AUDUSD
The pair has broken 1.01873 and aiming to 1.03847.
Resistance: 1.03847, 1.05810, 1.07806
Support: 1.01873, 1.00031, 0.97889