Please find hereafter our daily update on the majors as of June 11th 2011.
(Click on the dedicated link to access our forum post with the chart).
- EUR/USD
As explained in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD has confirmed its reversal structure and easily reached its previous high at 1,4350 corresponding to the 20 moving average.
The pair is now in the process of building a lower top formation with a next important target at 1,40. A break below this critical support would validate a major shift in the long term trend. It would open the door to the 1,35 area and further down.
It is soon though to talk about a reversal. We will wait first for a test of the 1,40 level.
Only a break back above 1,47 would negate the downside pressure.Link to ATF Forum post : EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
Like the Euro, the Pound has been under under intense pressure lately and finally broke below its important support at 1,63. With a confirmed weekly close below this level, that opens the door to the 1,61 area.
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts on this level. Indeed, a break below 1,61 would signify a major shift in the long trend with a great potential to the downside starting with 1,58.
The Euro and Pound evolve in the same direction and drive the US Dollar move.
The pressure remains definitly on the downtime and we will only consider selling opportunities for the time being.Link to ATF Forum post : GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
The USD/JPY remains constructive with the formation of a potential material base on top of the 80,00 level but the pair didn’t take advantage of the US Dollar strengh.
It is something that questions us. It this only a lag or does it mean that the US Dollar bounce will be short-lived ?
It is too soon to tell but we will remain on the sidelines on the USD/JPY until we get a confirmation of the bounce.
If the pair manages to establish above 81,00 it would be a good sign for a continuation towards 82,00 and maybe 84,00 over the middle term.Link to ATF Forum post : USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
The analysis for the USD/CHF is closed to the USD/JPY. The Swiss Franc has shown some great resistance against the US Dollar and the pair didn’t manage to accelerate to the upside.
Though swe consider that a major bottom has been drawn, we have to be extra carefull while trading this pair. We should have seen some kind of rally at the end of the week that didn’t happen.
However, if we do see a break above 0,8450 at the beginning of next week, it would warranty an acceleration toward next resistance at 0,8550 corresponding to the daily 20 moving average.
It is worth noting that the trend would remain bearish in any case. We don’t see the bears giving up like that after one year drop…Link to ATF Forum post : USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
The USD/CAD managed to remain in its rising channel which confirms the bullish momemtum.
We still need though to see the pair establishing above 0,98 for an acceleration towards parity.
We hold a bullish outlook on this pair but we will remain on the sidelines until we get this breakout.Link to ATF Forum post : USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
We have seen the AUD/USD consolidating for quite some time in its daily range between 1,08 and 1,05.
Though this range remains intact, we have seen an acceleration of the momentum to the downside lately with the shift of the market towards risk aversion weighting on the high yield currencies too.
Now a clear break below 1,05 would open the door to next support at 1,04 (weekly 20 moving average). In this event, we might see a continuation of the retracement towards the important support at 1,02.
By the meantime, we will stay on the sidelines as it is never good to anticipate things in particular when you want to short the Aussie…Link to ATF Forum post : AUD/USD
Notice : the technical analysis are given for information purpose only. There is no entry timing so you will have to build your own strategy based on these recommendations.
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