Market review for 6 – 10.06, 2011
Previous week demonstrated very diverse trading activity. On Monday the euro traded around its maximum levels due to the decreased concerns over the European crises. Possibility that Euro-zone would agree on allocating additional bailout package for Greece supported the euro. The EUR/USD traded in the range of $1.4620-$1.4660. Positive Euro-zone fundamentals were released on Monday as well. Euro-zone monthly producer price index for April turned out to be above forecasts: 0.9% against expected 0.8%. According to the experts’ predictions, the ECB would leave the principal rate unchanged at the previous level of 1.25%. US dollar remained weak on Monday after the negative US fundamental release last week.
The AUD/USD pair reached its maximums at the 1.0766 mark on the same day. The released Australian performance of construction index supported the national currency.
On Tuesday morning we saw strengthening of the euro. German Chancellor, Angela Markel supported the euro by expressing confidence in the soon rehabilitation from the Euro-zone economic crises. ECB reconfirmed its readiness to render additional financial help to Greece, which continued to have a positive influence on the euro as well. As a result, the EUR/USD strengthened above the $1.4600 level. The Euro-zone important news’ releases – EU retail sales and Germany Factory Orders – showed better than expected results. Daily maximums were reached at the $1.4680 level during the European trading session.
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its principal rate unchanged at the previous level of 4.75%. The Australian dollar rate decreased against the American dollar. The RBA supporting message stated that the current policy measures were appropriate.
Wednesday saw the growing demand for the save-heaven currencies and the drop of the euro. Representatives of the IMF stated that financial help of the Portuguese fund could lead to considerable risks. In addition, the released Euro-zone fundamentals did not render any support to the euro. The German industrial production dropped to 9.6% against the forecasted 10.0%. The EUR/USD pair reached the $1.4640 minimums. The sterling followed the euro and the GBP/USD dropped to the $1.6420 level. The credit agency “Moody’s” stated that the UK could have its credit rating decreased, if the UK economy continued to be so weak.
As a save-heaven currency, the yen showed considerable stabilization against the competitor currencies. The USD/JPY pair demonstrated minimums at the Y79.70 level.
Oil prices decreased to the $98.46 level per barrel on Wednesday. During the OPEC meeting, which was taking place in Vienne on that day, quotas could be raised to meet the demand.
According to the Beige Book release from Wednesday, four regions demonstrated slow-down of the US economical growth rate. The head of the FRS, Ben Bernanke, mentioned in his previous speech that economical growth of the previous period had been uneven and “disappointingly slow”.
In anticipation of the ECB interest rate decision, and particularly of the Jean-Claude Trichet speech, the euro rate increased and the EUR/USD pair strengthened at the level of $1.4650 on Thursday. According to the expectations, the ECB interested would be increased in July. On Thursday the ECB left the principal rate unchanged at the 1.25% level. According to the expectations, the Bank of England left the principal rate unchanged at the previous level of 0.5% as well.
Australian Employment change demonstrated growth only for 7.8K against the forecasted growth for 25K. As a result, the Australian dollar dropped against the greenback. Expectations, that the RBA would increase its principal rate, dropped.
The EUR/USD pair decreased and closed the trading week at the $1,4350 level. The GBP/USD dropped to $1,6220 mark.
Weekly technical analysis for 13 – 17.06
EURUSD
The pair broke 1.44835 and aiming to support level at 1.41130.
Resistance: 1.44835, 1.47697, 1.50676
Support: 1.41130, 1.37441, 1.33427
GBPUSD
The pair is trading between Moving Averages (200) 1.65379 and (100) 1.59962.
Resistance: 1.64274, 1.68504, 1.72652
Support: 1.59962, 1.52523, 1.48532
USDCHF
The pair has declined to 0.82723. The pair may roll back to channel line at 0.85633.
Resistance: 0.85633, 0.88022, 0.91074
Support: 0.82723, 0.79957, 0.76882
USDJPY
The pair declined to 80.244. If this level is broken the pair will continue declining.
Resistance: 83.330, 86.836, 90.909
Support: 80.244, 76.535, 73.126
AUDUSD
The pair has broken 1.05810 and aiming to 1.03847.
Resistance: 1.05810, 1.07806, 1.09604
Support: 1.03847, 1.01873, 1.00031