Please find hereafter our daily update on the majors as of June 23rd 2011 (22:40 GMT).
(Click on the dedicated link to access our forum post with the chart).
- EUR/USD
Today we have seen the EUR/USD being under pressure with a break below 1,43 and then 1,42 to reach a low at 1,4130.
From this point, towards the end of the US session, the pair has made a sharp bounce (more than 130 pips) retracing more than 38% of its decline.
We are now a bit confused with the Euro as the bounce coincides with the daily lower bollinger band but also the weekly 20 moving average which is still rising. The bulls might consider this bounce as a good opportunity to come back long on the pair.
We will see how things develop over the coming hours and before the end of the week but a break back above 1,4330 would probably resume the bullish trend.
Only a break below 1,41 would confirm a reversal structure on the pair.Link to ATF Forum post : EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
The Cable has been under intense pressure again today. The pair has easily broken down the low of May at 1,6060 to reach a new low at 1,5940.
It is worth noting that the bounce coincides with the March low, near the weekly lower bollinger band (see chart below).
Given this technical consideration, we might see some kind of retracement going forward with a potential target at 1,61 (50% fibonacci).
However the pressure remains on the downside and only a break back above 1,6260 (weekly high) would negate the bearish outlook.Link to ATF Forum post : GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
Despite the US Dollar strengh during the main part of the day, the USD/JPY didn’t manage to confirm a bullish momentum while reversing its course ahead of 80,80.
The pair is well capped by a descending trendline on the daily chart (see below) and might be under pressure over the coming hours for a possible new test of the 80,00 critical level.
Only a break above 81,00 would leviate the downside pressure and open the door to 81,70.Link to ATF Forum post : USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
Do we need to say that the USD/CHF remains under pressure ? It will be the case until we see a clear and durable bullish reversal.
Considering the economic and financial difficulties in the US and Europe, we don’t see any reason for the Swiss Franc holders to give up their position. The currency will probably continue to strenghten over the middle term.
From a technical stand point though and looking over the short term, a break above the important resistance at 0,8550 (see chart below) would leviate the downside pressure and open the door for a significant corrective move towards net resistance at 0,8750 and probably 0,8950 by extension (weekly 20 moving average).
By the meantime, we can expect a next test of all time low at 0,8330.
Link to ATF Forum post : USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
The USD/CAD remains confined in its daily range between 0,97 and 0,98. Today, we have the 0,98 level offering resistance once again.
This currency pair is currently very choppy and unpredictable.
We will stay on the sidelines until we see a clear trend emerges outside of either bound.
Range traders may take advantage of the quick swings but you need to be a specialist of that kind of trading.Link to ATF Forum post : USD/CAD
- AUD/USD
Like many market participants, we though that the AUD/USD was probably ready to close below its strong support at 1,05.
But once again, the pair has been very well bid on top of this level. Besides, the May low (1,0440) hasn’t been broken yet. It is a critical level which needs to be cleared to confirm a reversal structure with a target at parity.
The current bounce is building momentum so we might see a continuation of the move towards 1,0650 (daily 20 moving average). A break above this level opens the door for a test of the daily range at 1,0750.Link to ATF Forum post : AUD/USD
Notice : the technical analysis are given for information purpose only. There is no entry timing so you will have to build your own strategy based on these recommendations.
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