Market review for 26 – 30. 09, 2011
Europe and its debt problems were keeping everyone under pressure last trading week. The G20 meeting, that took place in Washington previous weekend, did not bring any stability to the market, since no decision has been agreed upon regarding the crises. The Euro reacted with a decrease against the competitors. Problems in Greece continued to pressure the euro. And according to the released information, the IMF was considering writing off 50% of the Greek debt. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to the $1,3370 minimums. During the European trading session on Monday the release of the positive economic indicators supported the euro and the EUR/USD grew to the $1.3542 region. The German Business climate IFO indicator turned out to be above expectations. By the end of the day the euro strengthened at the level of $1,3530, and the sterling reached the $1,5560 level.
The results of the meeting of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Prime Minister of Greece George Popandrey rendered substantial support to the euro and increased investors’ willingness to take risks. Angela Merkel confirmed that Greece was considered to be the integral part of the Euro-zone and that Germany would offer all the necessary support to Greece. At the same time the decision on ECB interest rates has not been agreed upon yet, which pressured the euro.
Optimistic moods supported the risky assets during the American trading session. By the end of the trading day the Euro managed to win back its previously lost positions against the greenback and the EUR/USD pair grew to the $1,3580 level. The sterling strengthened as well, and the GBP/USD increased to the $1,5640 level at the end of the day, while its maximum has been reached at the $1,5700 mark.
The Asian trading session demonstrated drop of the euro against the US dollar on Wednesday. During the European trading session the EUR/USD pair showed temporary maximum at the $1.3690 level, and then stepped back to the $1,3640 range. The discussions over the increase of the European financial stability fund supported the euro today. Germany was supposed to make a final decision this Thursday (the fund will be increased only if all the 17 countries participants’ would agree upon this increase).
During the American trading session market participants tried to get rid of the risky assets, and the EUR/USD decreased to the $1,3540 level, and the GBP/USD dropped to $1,5600. Concerns over the situation in Greece reinforced, and the major stock US indices decreased. According to the released information, the ECB would not increase the interest rates during its meeting planned for the October 6-th.
During the Asian trading session on Thursday the Euro won back its yesterday’s losses against the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The currency was rising on the background of the voting held in Germany regarding the expansion of EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund). Since the start of the Asian trading the UER/USD pair had increased significantly and showed its session highs around the $1.3678 area. The pair dropped after the report of the results of the auction of government bonds in Italy. The EUR/USD was forced to decrease to $1.3604 level.
The USD/JPY pair traded in the narrow trading price range. The demand for the currency with “safe haven” status had been reduced because of the rising European stock market and the U.S. indices’ futures. As a result, during the European trading session the Yen weakened and the pair set its high at 77.01 mark against the US Dollar. The USD/JPY pair could not climb higher than that level and stepped back to Y76.61 zone.
The beginning of the American session was accompanied by the increase in the Euro, which reached weekly maximum against the dollar after the EFSF expansion approval by the House of Commons of Germany. Pound grew after the statement of the representative of the SNB said that the Bank planning an increase of the portion of investments into the pound.
After the credit rating was reduced in New-Zealand, the national currency dropped as well.
By the end of the week the EUR/USD was at the $1,3400 level and the GBP/USD closed the week at the $1,5580 mark.
Weekly technical analysis for 3 – 7. 10
EURUSD
The pair is aiming to Fibonacci level 38% at 1.30370.
Resistance: 1.37441, 1.41130, 1.44835
Support: 1.33427, 1.28800, 1.25667
GBPUSD
The pair has reached Fibonacci 23%. 1.53419 and rolled back. The pair may try to return to 1.53419.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344
USDCHF
The pair is aiming to Moving Average (100) at 0.95470.
Resistance: 0.91074, 0.93264, 0.96597
Support: 0.88022, 0.85633, 0.82723
USDJPY
The pair has declined to support level at 76.535 and if the pair stays below this level the pair will decline to 73.126.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117
AUDUSD
The pair has broken Moving Average (100) at 0.97417 and aiming to the next Moving Average (200) at 0.91278.
Resistance: 0.97889, 1.00031, 1.01873
Support: 0.94417, 0.89581, 0.85561