Market review for 30.10 – 4.11, 2011
Last week demonstrated a rather diverse trading dynamics of the major currencies. On Monday the euro droppedagainst the main currencies after the release of the unemployment in Italy and in the EC in a whole. Employment volume turned out to be much worse than expected. Both sessions the EUR/USD pair traded in the range of $1.4118-$1,3906. US dollargrew against the background of the increased demand for the safe-haven assets and decreased world stock indices.
The yen dropped on the same day against the US dollar after the intervention by the Japanese government, aimed to weaken the national currency. The USD/JPY pair marked its highs at Y79.50 and then reduced to Y78,03.
Speculations regarding the slow-down of the European growth and concerns that the ECB would reduce the interest rate during the next meeting continued to pressure the euro on Tuesday as well. Investors were pressured by the discouraging information from Greece. The prime Minister of Greece announced of his intentions to introduce the previous anti-crises measures to a referendum. Other Greek politicians showed negative reaction to this announcement, and the euro dropped. As a result, the EUR/USD decreased by 200 points, while in the beginning of the day the rate was at the $1.3850 level. And the announcement of the American derivatives broker MF Global, who informed about their bankruptcy, had a negative influence on the investors’ trading activity.
During the Asian and European trading sessions on Wednesday, the euro showed correction after Tuesday’s decline against the US dollar, setting its daily high at $1.3827 level. The rumours were pressuring the markets, that the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) may delay the planned 3-billion-dollar bond issue because of unfavourable market conditions.
At the same time the US dollar fell against 11 of the 16 major currencies, amid expectations for not very positive economic statistics from the US. Speculations that the FRS would signal with its willingness to proceed with the purchase of assets or launch another program of quantitative easing pressured the greenback as well.
Oil rose for the first time in four days after the release of statistical data on U.S. employment and oil reserves, and a weakening of the US dollar ahead of Fed statement. The cost of the December futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) in trading in New York rose to 93.74 dollars per barrel.
US dollar compensated its losses against the Euro after the Federal Reserve increased its estimation of the economy. The statistics of the market for employment published on Wednesday also showed support to the dollar.
During the Asian trading session the euro fell by 0.8% from the three-week low against the dollar on Thursday. The ECB meeting was in focus of the market participants, which was a first meeting for the new president of the central bank Mario Draghi, who replaced Jean-Claude Trichet on November 1. The European Central Bank unexpectedly lowered the discount rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% level. The EUR/USD pair steeply fell after this report to its daily low at $1.3658 area. Later on the euro rose against the dollar after the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced that the referendum would not be held and thus reduced investor’s tension over the possible default of his country. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair strengthened to $1.3855 area.
The FRS interest rate was left at the previous range of 0,00%-0,25%, and in Australia the rate was reduced from 4,75% to 4,50%.
Weekly technical analysis for 4.11 – 7.11
EURUSD
The pair has reached Fibonacci 23% at 1.42036 and rolling back to 1.37441. If 1.37441 is broken he pair will decline to 1.33427.
Resistance: 1.41130, 1.44835, 1.47697
Support: 1.37441, 1.33427, 1.28800
GBPUSD
The pair has tested Moving Average (100) at 1.59962. If the pair stays below this level the pair will decline to Fibonacci 23% at 1.53340.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344
USDCHF
The pair is trying to stay above 0.88022 this will bring pair to test resistance at 0.91074.
Resistance: 0.91074, 0.93264, 0.96597
Support: 0.88022, 0.85633, 0.82723
USDJPY
The pair has tested resistance level at 80.244 and rolled back 78.119.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117
AUDUSD
The pair has declined to 1.03847. If the pair stays below this level the pair will decline to 1.01873.
Resistance: 1.05810, 1.07806, 1.09604
Support: 1.03847, 1.01873, 1.00031