Market review for 30.01 – 3.02, 2012
Euro: The Euro had correction against the U.S. dollar, after its five days growth. Market participants expected the results of EU summit which started in Brussels for the reason of conducting agreement to restructure the debt of Greece.
On Tuesday, the support for the Euro currency was provided by the speech of the Prime Minister of Greece Mr. Papademos Lucas, who expressed his hope that an agreement with the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund can be achieved by the end of the week. At the European trading session the Euro was pressured by the macroeconomic data, which was worse than expected and, therefore, reduced demand for risky assets. In particular, German retail sector reported decrease in sales by 0.9% and unemployment in the EU even matched the level of forecasts, but at the same time reached record levels for the region of 10.4%.
The EUR / USD the declined to $1.3027, its Wednesday’s low. The market participants were expected a negative result of auction on Portugal government bonds. The European session started with a big rally of the euro. The currency ran during all session against almost all its main competitors after published report on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sectors of France, Germany and the EU, which was better than expected. Also support the euro currency had rumors that the Greek authorities will finally reach an agreement with private creditors.
The euro continued to strengthen against the dollar during the Thursday’s Asian trading session after German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that Europe should be united in protecting the stability of the euro currency. The positive dynamics for the euro were also supported by the results of the auction of government bonds of France and Spain, where the demand for French bonds was pretty much high. However, at the European session the euro currency suffered by dropping to $1.3085 lows after the head of the Euro group Mr. Junker noticed that negotiations regarding the Greek debt with investors are passing very hard.
The positive report of U.S labor market, and as the result of it, the massive dropping of the U.S. dollar, could not strengthen the positions of the euro currency on Friday, February 3rd.
US Dollar: In his speech, on Tuesday, the Greece Prime Minister Papademos pointed out that the negotiations with private creditors are in a positive progress. This news provided some support for the risky assets and reduced demand for the U.S. dollar as a currency with a “safe haven” status.
The Wednesday American trading session saw the falling of the U.S dollar against 14 of the 16 most traded currencies. The demand for safe assets decreased after report of PMI Manufacturing in China and positive report of ISM Prices in United States
The dollar weakened against almost all of its 16 competitors, against the background of rising the Asian market indices and stocks on Thursdays and Fridays trading sessions.
British Pound: The results of the published Purchasing Managers ‘ Index (PMI) provided support for the British pound. The PMI rose by 2.4 percentage points to 52.1% mark in the first month of 2012, which is the maximum value over the past eight months.
Japanese Yen: Against the background of the problems in euro zone the Yen accumulated a lot of long positions. The yen continued rising against its competitors. However, at the end of the week on Friday, the Yen fell against the dollar to Y76.70 area showing that the investors and trades were aware of possible intervention of Central Bank of Japan.
Australian and New Zealand dollars: The appetite of investors and traders for high-yield assets as well as the growing of the Stock markets were provided positive support for the Australian and New Zealand dollars trading dynamics.
Weekly technical analysis for 6 – 10. 02
EURUSD
The pair is trying to stay above Fibonacci 38% 1.30542.
Resistance: 1.33427, 1.37441, 1.41130
Support: 1.28800, 1.25667, 1.20280
GBPUSD
The pair is aiming to the Moving Average (100) at 1.59962.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344
USDCHF
The pair has declined to 0.91074. If this level is broken the pair will decline to 0.88022.
Resistance: 0.93264, 0.96597, 0.99031
Support: 0.91074, 0.88022, 0.85633
USDJPY
The pair has declined to support level at 76.535. If this level is broken the pair will decline to 73.126.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117
AUDUSD
The pair has reached 1.07806 and may roll back to 1.05810.
Resistance: 1.07806, 1.09604, 1.11831
Support: 1.05810, 1.03847, 1.01873