Daily FX perspective September 27, 2012 – GFM Research

The Dollar Index continued to gain on the event of most of the asset classes correcting, especially the equities; today’s Asian trade has seen stability in the equities resulting in the Dollar Index trading marginally lower at 79.80. Further fall in the Greenback is expected only on the Dollar Index consistently trading below 78.00 ranges. Though the major trend is bearish, the USD seems to be over sold in short-term. The benchmark equity index of the Dow Industrials (.DJIA) is currently trading firm at 13461 ranges; only daily close below 13110 would halt rally; though 2007 highs of 14000 ranges would act as major barrier.

Historic correlation between DX Vs DJIA suggests the long-term trend is still dollar bearish till the Dollar Index is not closing above 84.50 on monthly basis. Even the medium term trend has turned bearish after the Dollar Index breached 81.00 ranges and with immediate support seen in 78.70-78.20 ranges.

NYMEX Crude unable to sustain above $93.20 ranges which is acting as short term resistance is trading weak at $90.10. Short term trend is weak and may test $87.15 ranges with $94.10 range still acting as resistance.

EURUSD     Sideways                    1.2950              1.2910          1.2840          1.2745
USDJPY     Sideways                      78.40                78.00            77.50            77.00
GBPUSD     Sideways                    1.6230              1.6200          1.6130          1.6090
USDCHF     Sideways                    0.9430              0.9410           0.9330         0.9300
EURJPY     Sideways                    101.00              100.45             99.50           99.20
AUDUSD    Sideways-Up               1.0430              1.0410           1.0330          1.0300

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