Forex trading weekly review- 08.10.2012

After the price has corrected the last downtrend which is marked in a black broken line (from point number 5) by a third (38.2%) by reaching to the 1.3150 price level and in addition it looks like it is stopping on the upper Bollinger band, it looks like it is trying to get back under the 1.2910 resistance level and to perform a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last uptrend which started on the 1.2042 price level, meaning between the 1.2740 and the 1.2470 price levels. On the other hand, breaching of the 1.3150 price level will probably lead the price towards the 1.3486 price level which is a 50% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend marked in a black broken line.

The price has came back above the 1.2910 price level while breaching the 1.3150 price level will probably lead it towards the 1.3486 price level which is a 50% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend marked with black broken line and a resistance level. On the other hand, descending of the price again under the 1.2910 price level will probably lead the price to a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last uptrend which started on the 1.2042 price level.

You can see the chart below:

By breaking the 1.2916 the price has descended under the 1.2824 Fibonacci level, while breaking this level is suppose to lead it to the 1.2750 price level, which is significant level because it is used as a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the last uptrend which started on the 1.2500 price level (blue broken line) and 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend that started on the 1.2040 price level (black broken line) and also a strong support level. Proven breaking of this level will probably lead the price towards the 1.2600 price level, which is used as a 50% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend marked in black broken line. On the other hand, Breaching of the 1.3172 price level will probably lead the price to continue the uptrend with first target on the closest resistance on the 1.3280 price level.

After the stoppage of the price on the 1.2824 price level which is used as a 50% Fibonacci correction level of the uptrend which started on the 1.2500 price level and marked with blue broken line, the price started to climb while it is crossing the 1.3000 resistance level again. If it will continue above the 1.3000 price level, it is possible that the 1.3172 price level will be its first target. On the other hand, descending of the price under the 1.2824 price level is suppose to send it towards the 1.2750 price level which has two roles, 1- is a 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the last uptrend (blue broken line), and 2- a 38.2% correction of the uptrend that began on the 1.2040 price level (black broken line) and a significant support level.

You can see the chart below:

The price could not break the 1.6300 resistance level for now and it looks like the last candle is currently checking the descending trend line between the peaks (red broken line) if it switch places and from a dynamic resistance to support. If the price will stop at the current area and breach the 1.6300 price level, it will probably continue north towards the next resistance on the 1.6550 price level. On the other hand, the entrance of the price under the descending trend line between the peak and under the 1.6170 trend line will probably lead the price to a correction of the last uptrend which started on the 1.5390 price level, in size of between a third and two thirds by Fibonacci.

During the last trading week the price stayed above the descending trend line between the peaks (red broken line which is used as a dynamic support. If the price will stay above the trend line and breach the 1.6300 price level, it will probably continue north towards the next resistance on the 1.6550 price level. On the other hand, breaching of the mentioned trend line and under the 1.6170 support level will probably lead the price to a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last uptrend which started on the 1.5390 price level.

You can see the chart below:

It is possible to see that the price has stopped on the last peak/resistance on the 1.6300 price level, which is a 38.2% correction of the last uptrend which is marked in blue broken line. Breaking of this level and the lower lip of the ascending price channel will probably lead the price towards the 1.6032 price level which is a 50% Fibonacci correction of the mentioned uptrend. On the other hand, breaching of the 1.6300 price level will probably lead the price towards the next resistance on the 1.6550 price level.

The last move downwards from the 1.6300 has stopped on the 1.6100 price level which is a 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the last uptrend which is marked with blue broken line. The establishment of the price above the Bollinger’s moving average will probably lead it towards the last peak on the 1.6300 price level while breaking this level will probably lead the price towards the next resistance on the 1.6550 price level. On the other hand, breaking of the 1.6100 price level will probably lead the price towards the 1.6032 price level which is a 50% Fibonacci correction of the mentioned uptrend.

You can see the chart below:

It is possible to see that during the passing month the price has checked the 1.5500 support level (the low of the last candle) and went back up while closing in green. The price is located at the middle of the range while the Bollinger bands are closing on it. The convergence of the price into a symmetric triangle (black broken lines) shows its movement to the side as well. Breaking of the lower rib of the triangle and the 1.52 price level will probably indicate that the price will move towards the closest support on the 1.4200 price level. On the other hand, in case the price will go up and close above the Bollinger’s moving average, it is possible that it will check again the upper rib of the triangle.

You can see the chart below:

The price has breached the 1.5778 upper ranging level and we can see that on the last candle the price has checked if this level can switch roles and function as a support (it can be better seen on the daily chart), followed an ascending move once the check was done. Breaching of the 1.5778 price level is breaching the neckline of the “One in, one out” pattern (blue broken lines), while its target is the next resistance on the 1.6170 price level. Only breaking of the 1.5778 price level will stall the current uptrend while it is possible to see a technical correction of the uptrend which started around the 1.5400 area.

You can see the chart below:

The price has breached the 1.5737 resistance level and reached the 1.5906 by doing a sharp move upwards. At this stage the price has stopped and went down to check the 1.5784 support level (from the weekly chart review) while on the last day of the week, the price has climbed and currently located on the 1.5906 last peak level. Breaching of this level will probably lead the price to complete the “One in, one out” pattern target (blue broken lines), on the 1.6015 price level. Only breaking of the price on the ascending trend line which is connecting the lows will change this assumption.

You can see the chart below:

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