Tracking the EUR/USD pair
Date: 10.10.2012 Time: 18:14 Rate: 1.2889
Daily chart
Last Review
As it was mentioned on yesterdays review, the price has stopped on the 1.3070 price level and created a lower peak after passing the previous high on the 1.3172 price level. Proven breaking of the 1.2800 price level will create for the first time a descending price structure while it is possible to assume that the price will perform a descending move which will reach the area between the 1.2470 and the 1.2750 price levels. Those are Fibonacci correction levels of the last uptrend which started on the 1.2040 price level and marked in black broken line. Only breaching of the 1.3070 price level will cancel this assumption and it is possible that its first target will be the last peak on the 1.3172 price level while breaching this level will lead the price towards the next resistance on the 1.3280 price level.
Current review for today
While writing those lines the price is still located above the 1.2800 price level while the current trading day does not show any direction for the continuation of the pair. Proven breaking of the 1.2800 price level will a descending price structure for the first time while it is possible to assume that the price will perform a downtrend which will move between the 1.2470 and the 1.2750 price levels Those are Fibonacci correction levels of the last uptrend which started on the 1.2040 price level and marked in black broken line. Only breaching of the 1.3070 price level will cancel this assumption and it is possible that its first target will be the last peak on the 1.3172 price level while breaching this level will lead the price towards the next resistance on the 1.3280 price level.
You can see the chart below:
EUR/USD
Date: 10.10.2012 Time: 18:26 Rate: 1.2894
4 Hour chart
Last Review
The price has reached the 1.2916 price level as it was mentioned on yesterday’s review and even broken this level while creating a descending price structure. It is possible to assume that the created low will not be the last and the price will descend in first stage towards the last low on the 1.2800 price level. As long as the price will not create an ascending price structure, any move upwards up to the 1.3000 price level will be considered as a correction to the previous downtrend.
Current review for today
It is possible to see that during the last downtrend, the price has stopped exactly on the 1.2837 price level which is a 50% Fibonacci correction level of the uptrend marked with black broken line. The short move upwards of the last 5 candles is correcting exactly 50% of the last downtrend (red broken line). As long as the price is located under the Bollinger’s moving average, the price is located in bearish area of the pair. Breaking of the 1.2837 price level will probably lead the price towards the next Fibonacci on the 1.2758 price level. On the other hand, establishment of the price above the Bollinger’s moving average will probably lead the price to check the 1.3000 resistance level at first stage.
You can see the chart below:
GBP/USD
Date: 10.10.2012 Time: 18:35 Rate: 1.6005
4 Hour chart
Last Review
The price has reached the 1.6000 target level and the price structure continues its way while every move upwards is considered a technical correction to the previous downtrend. It is possible that now the price will perform a correction of the last downtrend which started on the 1.6200 price level in size of between a third and two thirds and will continue towards the next Fibonacci on the 1.5900 price level. Only a creation of an ascending price structure will change this assumption.
Current review for today
Not much changed since the last review, the price is still supported by the 1.6000 price level while it is located under the moving average of the Bollinger bands which is sharply headed down towards the price and currently preventing it from moving upwards. The descending price structure is not breaking, therefore every move upwards is considered as a correction of the downtrend, that as long as we do not see a change in the price structure. Breaking of the last low in a proven way is suppose to lead the price towards the next Fibonacci on the 1.5900 price level, which is also a support level. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area and a creation of an ascending price structure will probably lead the price to a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last downtrend which started on the 1.6200 price level.
You can see the chart below:
AUD/USD
Date: 10.10.2012 Time: 18:42 Rate: 1.0232
4 Hour chart
Last Review
The price is still located above the 1.0167 support level while stoppage of the price at the current area and a creation of an ascending price structure will probably lead to a technical correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last downtrend which started on the 1.01474 price level. On the other hand, Proven breaking of the 1.0167 price level will create a “Double top” pattern with a target on the 0.9721 price level (red broken lines).
Current review for today
The price is trying to create an ascending price structure while it is possible that we will see a move upwards to the upper lip of the descending price channel. In this case it will also be a Fibonacci correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the downtrend that started on the 1.0474 price level. Proven breaking of the 1.0167 price level will create a graphical pattern which is called “Double top” with a target on the 0.9721 price level (red broken lines).
You can see the chart below:
USD/CHF
Date: 10.10.2012 Time: 18:47 Rate: 0.9392
4 Hour chart
Last Review
It looks like the price is making its way towards the closest resistance on the 0.9438 price level while its breaching in a proven way will probably lead the price towards the 0.9513 price level which is a 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the downtrend marked in red broken line. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area will probably create a range between the 0.9300 and the 0.9438 price levels.
Current review for today
Another effort of the price to breach the 0.9438 resistance level did not succeed but the price is still moving in an ascending price structure. Therefore the last ascending move from the 0.9300 is still valid. Breaching of the 0.9438 in a proven way will probably lead the price towards the 0.9513 price level which is a 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend marked with red broken line. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area will probably create a range between the 0.9300 and the 0.9438 price levels.
You can see the chart below:
Important announcements for today:
13.30 (GMT+1) CAD – Trade Balance
13.30 (GMT+1) USD – Trade Balance
13.30 (GMT+1) USD – Unemployment claims
