Each week and calendar month, quantitative analysis is used to determine certain probable price movements which can be forecasted.
Previous Monthly Forecast for June 2014
I forecasted that during June, it was probable that AUD/SEK would rise. This cross has in fact risen already by 1.97% so far this month, so with only a single day remaining before the end of this month, it seems certain this will have been a very successful forecast. Unfortunately most brokers do not offer this cross, so two trades would usually have to be made to effect the cross (long AUD/USD and long USD/SEK). The spreads involved could have rendered this trade uneconomic.
Therefore, as the key feature was really the strength of the AUD, and as EUR and CHF have been quite weak, I saw two possible alternative trades:
| Currency Pair | Forecast Direction | Interest Rate Differential | Month to Date Performance |
| AUD/CHF | Long ↑ | 2.25% (2.50% – 0.25%) | +0.76% |
| EUR/AUD | Short ↓ | 2.35% (2.50% – 0.15%) | -1.10% |
These forecasts were also successful.
As we have just one more market day until July starts, we will make our forecast for July now:
Current Monthly Forecast for July 2014
| Currency Pair | Forecast Direction | Interest Rate Differential | Month to Date Performance |
| EUR/CAD | Short ↓ | 0.85% (1.00% – 0.15%) | N/A |
During July, the Canadian Dollar is likely to rise in value, and the Euro is likely to fall in value.
I also see the New Zealand Dollar, and to a lesser extent the Australian Dollars, as being likely to rise in value against the Euro and the USD.
Weekly Forecast 30th June 2014
The market is too flat over the short-term to support any weekly forecast this week, beyond key support and resistance levels that are worth watching:
| Currency Pair | Key Support / Resistance Levels |
| AUD/USD | Support: 0.9300 – 0.9325, 0.9200 Resistance: 0.9425 – 0.9450, 0.9620 |
| EUR/USD | Support: 1.3486, 1.3414, Resistance: 1.3688, 1.3750, 1.3814 |
| GBP/USD | Support: 1.6914, 1.6684, 1.6623 Resistance: 1.7041 – 1.7062, 1.7450 – 1.7550 |
| USD/JPY | Support: 100.88 – 100.74 Resistance: 102.22, 103.00 |
| AUD/JPY | Support: 95.00, 93.03, 92.00, 90.05 – 89.81 Resistance: 96.00 – 96.32, 97.22 |
| EUR/JPY | Support: 137.52, 135.94 – 136.00, 134.08 – 134.00 Resistance: 139.93 – 140.08, 140.93 |
| USD/CAD | Support: 1.0558 – 1.0579 Resistance: 1.0889, 1.0950, 1.1000 |
This article was written by Adam Lemon, an expert analyst at dailyforex.com. Click here to view more weekly forecasts contributed by professionals from the world of Forex.