The AUD/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Thursday, as we managed to break down through the last signs of support. Now that we have done that, we believe that rallies will continue to bring sellers, as the Australian dollar looks like it’s ready to go back down towards the 0.92 handle. At that level, we would expect to see the market find a lot of buyers, so initially we believe that this will be a short-term move. We have to ask whether or not the market can go lower, but at this point in time we think that short-term moves will probably continue to see what you can expect as we are heading into the summer.
Keep in mind that the nonfarm payroll numbers will more than likely move almost everything at one point or another during the day, and we feel that the Australian dollar will be any different. That being the case, we are not interested in being involved in this market before that announcement comes out, but ultimately recognize that a move above the 0.9350 level would be very bullish as we continue to head towards the 0.95 handle again as it is the top of that large consolidation area.
To fall from here of course we will have to deal with 0.92 at first, but even if we break down below there we believe that the market will find a lot of support just below, probably at the 0.90 level with that, the market will eventually be bullish in our opinion, but right now the Australian dollar certainly looks like it’s struggling. On top of that, the market is coinciding nicely with the gold markets, as they have fallen as well, but have plenty of areas just below that could be very supportive overall. With that, we feel that both markets will eventually get the bounce that would be necessary to keep the uptrend intact. However, we recognize that short-term selling opportunities do exist in both of these markets, and certainly cannot be ignored.
