Market Review – 28/07/2010 22:52 GMTDollar drops versus yen on weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods ordersDollar retreated to 87.63 versus the Japanese yen in Asia on Wednesday due to profit-taking after Tuesday’s rally from 86.83 to 87.98 but renewed risk appetite on the back of rising Asian stock markets lifted price again and the pair rose briefly to an intra-day high of 88.12 in European morning before selling interest there from Japanese exporters capped its upside, price then dropped to 87.43 in NY morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders, which added worries over U.S. economic outlook and later to as low as 87.25 in late NY trading session as U.S. Fed’s Beige book stated that U.S. economic activity continued to increase but not robustly and some districts reported slowing economy.
U.S. new orders for durable goods fell for a straight month in June, recording their largest decline since August 2009. Durable goods orders dropped by 1.0%, much worse than the estimate of 1.0% increase.
In other news, BOJ’s policy board member Hidetoshi Kamezaki expressed a cautious view and said Japan is not yet in a strong recovery led by domestic demand. He added he will not decide policy with current forex level in mind and yen rise will push down exports for short term.
The single currency rebounded from 1.2967 in Asian morning after Tuesday’s sharp fall from a 10-week high of 1.3047 to 1.2952 and although euro ratcheted higher to an intra-day high of 1.3043 in European morning, it traded with volatility in U.S. session, having rebounded from 1.2974 to 1.3029 before dropping again to as low as 1.2969 in NY afternoon after the release of Fed’s Beige book before staging a recovery.
Although the British pound rose from 1.5563 in Asia after Tuesday’s rally from 1.5441 to 1.5600 and climbed to 1.5627 in European morning, sterling then fell briefly and sharply to an intra-day low of 1.5545 on dovish comments by BoE Governor Mervyn King, however, renewed buying interest there (especially versus the euro) limited the pair’s downside somewhat and cable rose to a five-month high of 1.5638 in NY morning before easing on long liquidation, traded around 1.5580/90 in late NY session.
BoE Governor Mervyn King said in his testimony that Q2 GDP growth was encouraging but must be careful not to read too much into one number and he is not certain that U.K. recovery will be sustained. He added the central bank was focusing on the appropriate degree of stimulus, not applying brake on it.
The Australian dollar tumbled against US dollar from 0.9025 to 0.8908 after the release of Australian Q2 CPI, which came in at 0.6% q/q and 3.1% y/y, lower than the expectations of 1.0% and 3.4% respectively and raised speculation that RBA would keep its interest rate unchanged.
On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%, in line with market expectations but the official statements came with a distinctly dovish tone, making the size and the timing of future rate hikes uncertain. Nzd/usd fell sharply to as low as 0.7202 after RBNZ’s rate decision and statements.
Economic data to be released on Thursday include: New Zealand Trade balance (nzd), Imports, Exports, Japan Retail sales, U.K. Nationwide hse price, Germany Unemployment change, Unemployment rate, EU Economic sentiment , Consumer Confidence , Business climate, U.S. Jobless claims and Canada PPI.
