On Friday, the European currency uprose against the US dollar amid declaration of the US FRS Chairman Ben Bernanke about an intent to support the economic recovery.
During the European session the trading volatility was high enough, though without significant changes. The pair was trading mostly in the sideways channel 1.2694-1.2729. During the North American session the euro ascended to a new high of the last week 1.2783.
The trading ended in favor of the euro, which strengthened versus the US dollar by 46 pips, the volatility equaled to 108 pips.Fundamental review:EUR/USD reacted to the data on the US economic activity in the 2nd quarter 2010 by a strong market movement, at first downside, and upwards thereafter; the economy demonstrated a weaker growth than considered before.
According to the US Department of Commerce, the Us GDP in the 2nd quarter uprose seasonally adjusted by 1.6%. Note, that the primary estimation of the US GDP advance in the 2nd quarter was published a month earlier and amounted to 2.4% after the increase by 3.7% in the 1st quarter.
Though, the economists foresaw the GDP to upturn in the 2nd quarter by 1.3%.
The US dollar was supported by the data about the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, which in August equaled to 68.9 versus 67.8 in July. The final index of current conditions by the University of Michigan added to 78.3 versus 76.5 in July, and the final consumer confidence index ascended to 62.9 versus 62.3 in July.
The euro had managed to fixate against the US dollar by the end of the trading day after Ben Bernanke stated about being ready to do everything in order to support the economic recovery which is exhaling. However, he did not comment on whether the FRS would take measures.Technical analysis:The pair continues to trade in the uprising price channel dated August 24. The lower band of the channel passes the Friday minimum of 1.2675 and the upper is placed around the maximum of August 26 and 27, i.e. 1.2764 and 1.2783 correspondingly.
The pair is supported by the first key level of 1.2729 from which the decline can renew to 1.2694 and 1.2659.
The first resistance level is near 1.2783 from which the growth will continue to 1.2823 and to 1.2868.
The Bollinger Bands are directed upward, but the trading is held next to the lower band which is located around 1.2740 and is keeping the pair from further falling.
The MACD is within the area of purchasing and any significant decrease of the pair can cause the euro buying versus the American currency.
Recommendations for today:
Support Levels: 1.2729, 1.2694, 1.2659
Resistance Levels: 1.2783, 1.2823, 1.2868
Today, I advise to buy the pair at closing in accord to the hourly timeframe above the level of 1.2770 with a target of T/P 1.2829 and S/L 1.2743
One can sell at closing with relation to an hourly timeframe of the pair below the level of 1.2726 with an aim – T/P 1.2691 and S/L 1.2744
