Yesterday I got a few emails with requests to write about AUD/USD and EUR/GBP. As I have enough time, I will kindly write about it. Although in my last review I described the market. I will point out here only the conclusions.
On the market the situation is very puzzled. The main thing which should be given attention is the negative data releases, as they are able to make the markets refrain from risky assets and invest in the US dollar, and if they have no fear of the BOJ interventions, in the yen as well.
As to the Aussie, there is nothing much to be said here.
There is the area of 0,8754 above which according to the technique it should be bought, and below – sold. But not on such market, moreover, I do not personally see any strategy in it lately. There is something similar to a red ascending channel and numerous ress/supp in the form of actual for it movements. Besides, all of them have almost converged thus denoting a long-term wide sideways market movement.
The first sell signal here can be breaking through the red channel downwards with a confirmation. But this is not the solution for selling and one can hardly be directed by this. It will be more logical to regard the selling exactly after breaking through 0.8754 by the price of the week close. The close daily price will not be enough. I will not consider the variants of purchases by far; the market is unfavorable for it at the moment.
The situation with the euro-pound pair is easier. In one of the reviews I wrote that the strong statistics can support the pound. In fact, it is happening so currently. To put it right, the British fundamentals appear much better than the European. It is clearly seen on the charts that the euro is falling shaper than the pound. As to their maximums, the pound has moved less to the lows than the euro. Yesterday’s trading illustrates similar dynamics. From the market opening price the European currency decreased more than the pound.
The pound is moving downwards at a slow pace. It is possible that everybody is waiting for the enhancement of the rate, or at last for a hint to this event, which is not wise. The authorities of the US and EU declare that it is too early to refrain from the mild policy of interest rates. And the same situation is in the UK. As its economy has hardly recovered from the crisis distortions, since there are no surprisingly favorable statistics yet. So, I suppose they will not be increasing the interest rate till 2011.
Nevertheless, all these events give support to the pound. That is why at the moment the British pound looks more attractive than the European currency. Actually, the charts are demonstrating it visually.
I think that there is nothing much to explain, as everything is quite vivid. I can recommend the following. It is only logical to sell. The most conservative option here is selling from 0,8284 – 0,8305 with a target at 0,8030. It is logical to put the stop slightly above 0,8390. Being aggressive, one should consider the break through the level of 0,8165 with the same target. In this case the stop is in accord to your MM. I would prefer the conservative variant of selling, and if it does not move higher, wait for this vivid break through, see the price dynamics and estimate if it is worth acting.