As we kick off a new week, let’s take a look at the top five major economic events that will be in the spotlight:
1. U.S. Consumer Confidence Index
On Friday, the United States will release the Consumer Confidence Index, which is crucial for assessing the country’s inflation and overall economic trajectory. This index is closely watched by market participants.
2. Speeches by Influential Federal Reserve Officials
Several high-ranking Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams, President of the New York Fed, Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, and Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, will deliver public speeches this week. These individuals are highly influential within the Federal Reserve and are widely regarded as credible and reliable sources, thanks to their deep understanding of macroeconomic dynamics and their track record of providing accurate assessments.
3. U.S. Stock Market Performance
Last Friday, the U.S. Labor Department released the April non-farm payrolls report, which Wall Street described as “just right”, as it eased concerns about inflation. This report will continue to impact the market this week, especially after the dismal performance of the U.S. stock market in April. Investors will be closely watching to see if this “just right” report can reverse the market’s downward trend.
4. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold its interest rate policy meeting. While the market broadly expects the central bank to keep rates unchanged, Wall Street is closely monitoring the meeting for any forward guidance or expectations regarding future rate cuts. Recent macroeconomic data from the UK has shown rising inflation, similar to the U.S., leading to market expectations that the Bank of England may delay a potential rate cut from June to September. Investors will be looking for any hints or clues about the central bank’s plans for June or September.
5. Chinese Economic Data Releases
Next week, China will release two major macroeconomic data points. On May 9th, China will publish its April trade data. While the country’s export and import figures were positive in the first quarter, investors will be watching to see if this momentum can be sustained in April. Chinese economists generally expect exports to rebound to a 10% growth rate and imports to rise by 2.5% year-over-year. If these projections hold true, it would support the overall assessment of an improving Chinese economy.
Additionally, on May 11th, China’s National Bureau of Statistics will release the April inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Chinese economists broadly expect the CPI to rise slightly to 0.2% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year decline to narrow to 2.3%. If these figures materialize, it would signal that China remains in a deflationary state or on the edge of deflation.